First Marblehead gets clobbered
First Marblehead (FMD) is the latest financial firm buffeted by fears that defaults will soar on all sorts of loans as the economy slows. Shares extended their recent free fall early Friday, dropping 8% after the student lender cut its dividend by more than half and said it won’t try to sell any securities backed by its loans this quarter. Earlier this week, Moody’s said it would review First Marblehead’s ratings; last week, Fitch cut its ratings on First Marblehead’s financial guarantor affiliate, on worries that the unit won’t have enough capital to sustain a sharp rise in defaults on First Marblehead loans.
Worries about the soundness of First Marblehead’s loans have sent the stock down 70 percent this year, in an arc resembling the plunges in financial intermediaries like MBIA (MBI) and Radian (RDN). But at the Motley Fool, Christopher Singley ventures that it may be time to buy First Marblehead. He says the lender has a first-class franchise in an area that’s got strong growth and may be somewhat more insulated from consumer spending worries than, say, car loans or credit cards - two areas where delinquencies have spiked lately. He also notes that at recent trading prices, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of about 6. “I don’t know about you,” he writes, “but to me, that sounds very, very cheap.”
Countrywide: Check’s in the mail?
Is something up at Countrywide (CFC)? Shares of the struggling mortgage lender sat out Wednesday’s red hot financial sector rally, dropping 3% even as peers such as Freddie Mac (FRE) and Washington Mutual (WM) rose sharply. Bloomberg notes that Countrywide credit default swaps – bets on whether the firm will be able to pay its obligations – are trading at distressed levels. Meanwhile, Countrywide last week issued a press release defending its liquidity position in a bid to quiet market skeptics who believe the firm will run out of money as problems in the housing market deepen.
Now comes The Wall Street Journal. The paper weighs in Thursday with a piece arguing that BofA’s (BAC) preferred stock investment in Countrywide may yet turn out to be a smart move — despite the fact that Countrywide shares have lost half their value in the intervening months.
What’s curious about the piece is that it notes Countrywide owed BofA its first $36.25 million quarterly dividend payment this month, but no one at either company will say whether Countrywide has paid up. BofA referred a question on the matter to Countrywide, which didn’t immediately respond to a call from Fortune.
“It seems like Countrywide has the liquidity to pay this dividend, so what is surprising here is that Countrywide would not come out and say that it has paid it,” said Gary Gordon, analyst at Portales Partners.
Craig Emrich, the Moody’s credit analyst who covers Countrywide, says nonpayment of the dividend on this convertible bond would not be a default, because this type of security — a so-called cumulative preferred security — allows the issuer to defer a certain amount of dividends. Emrich doesn’t know whether Countrywide has paid its latest dividend or not.
“I don’t think it’s that unusual for an issuer to defer a dividend,” he says, adding that the terms of the allow Bank of America to designate two directors to Countrywide’s board if the dividend isn’t paid for six quarters.
Fortune also contacted Countrywide credit analysts at S&P to see if payment had been made, but they didn’t respond to the inquiries.
Maybe there’s nothing to this. Countrywide shares were up 3% in early trading Thursday as the other financial stocks dropped. But given all the worries about Countrywide’s financial position, investors might want to know if the company is current on the BofA deal.
Citi’s balance sheet: bases are still loaded
Baseball isn’t in season, but the national pastime lives on in credit crunch metaphors. On Tuesday CIBC analyst Meredith Whitney responded to Citi’s (C) sale of a big convertible preferred stock stake to Abu Dhabi with a report suggesting Citi will still need to sell billions of dollars worth of assets and cut its common stock dividend. Earlier this month, Whitney paved the way for CEO Chuck Prince’s exit with a report advocating a dividend cut. Her latest salvo sent Citi shares down more than 1% even as the market posted a broad rally. The Whitney comment getting the biggest play Tuesday was her prediction that Citi’s mortgage losses will “mount at an alarming rate” in coming quarters. In making that forecast she also argued that Citi faces additional writedowns on its holdings of collateralized debt obligations — and there the link to the sport that ranks up there with mom and apple pie.
“CDO write-downs are ‘first inning’ issues,” Whitney warned. Her remarks come just two weeks after Wells Fargo (WFC) chief John Stumpf told investors that the housing crisis has a long way to play out. “I don’t think we’re in the ninth inning of unwinding this,” he said Nov. 15, Reuters reported. “If we are, it’s an extra-inning game.” Obviously, no one wants to see one of those.
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