The business stories that matter, by Fortune's Colin Barr
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May 13, 2008, 7:18 am

Toll laments homebuyers’ ‘lack of confidence’

Toll Brothers (TOL) said revenue fell 30% from a year ago in its fiscal second quarter ended last month, as sales volumes and prices continue their two-year-long slide. The Horsham, Pa.-based homebuilder posted a 44% decline in net signed house-sale contracts, while the average price per unit dropped 25% to $534,000. The company said cancellations fell from year-ago levels, to 308 from 384, but Toll paid a steep price for losing those deals: the average price of a canceled contract - $760,000 - was 42% above the company’s net average contract price for the second quarter.

“We believe there is significant pent-up demand which is growing. When we have held promotions, buyers have come out to play and put down deposits,” said CEO Bob Toll. “Often, however, a lack of confidence in the direction of home prices overcomes their enthusiasm and they don’t take the next step of going to contract.”

Toll said he believes the company’s premium pricing and strong balance sheet, together with thinning competition in the house-building business, will serve Toll well when the market turns, and in the meantime the company is looking opportunistically for acquisitions. But like the house buyers who don’t know when prices are going to bottom, Toll remains on the sidelines for the moment. “With over $2.5 billion of available capital we hope to be able to take advantage of opportunities that we expect will arise from today’s distress,” Toll said. “We are looking for deals in most markets but have yet to see any opportunities that fit our parameters of high-end communities at bargain prices. More offerings have come to market recently but nothing has excited us yet.”

Meanwhile, despite the poor numbers from Toll and its rivals, investors seem to have faith the sector will turn around sooner rather than later. Toll shares are up 15% this year.

Toll builds crap. I owned a house in sharon, mass. sold it, and thank god! absolutely, without question a big pile of crap. poor quality, all the way around. if you are going to spend 600,00 or up look elsewhere, believe me. they look good, but that is the surface, they are built like crap, no attention at all to details, they are a horrible company to do business with.

Posted By jeff, sharon mass-no more : May 13, 2008 6:00 pm

No sympathy for home builders! You guys are as greedy and deceptive as the real estate agents, mortgage brokers and banks! Toll Brothers is as notorious as Signature Properties, Pulte, KB Homes, etc. in using shoddy materials and then charging overpriced junk! Did you guys really believe that real estate only goes up?! Smart buyers are saving all their money for more realistic home prices. The depreciating home prices have another 2 to 3 years to go before anyone can really afford anything. Who in their right mind is going to pay $1 million for a condo?! You should be able to buy a HOUSE - not a small box!

Posted By Daria, San Francisco, CA : May 13, 2008 12:53 pm

Toll brothers are very greedy and no regard for their customers. I have signed a contract with them for a townhome in Maryland on October 2007. My job has transfered to Virginia soon after signing the contract. I have made a request to transfer my deposit to one of the communities Virginia as my townhome construction wasn’t started yet in MD. They simply played a game by waiting two months until they start building the unit and said we have started your unit thus can’t transfer. The greediness, deception and lack of customer service is clear here.

Posted By Maryland : May 13, 2008 10:40 am

Bottom line is the homes are still too expensive and regardless of what Wall Street thinks many people do not have the money they say they have.

Posted By Bob Louis, Albany, NY : May 13, 2008 10:14 am

What a completely idiotic article. Of course, a luxury McMansion builder is going to lament that they aren’t raking in money hand over fist. Do you think they’d lament over the troubles that average citizens are having just trying to keep their heads above water. Do yoy think that Toll will pass on “bargain prices” to the eventual buyers of their next POS community that they construct. Yeah, right. They’ll ask top dollar for their bargain price acquisitions, believe you me.

People, when you strip away all the fluff and buff, a house is still just sticks of lumber and concrete blocks. More is not always better, but more will always mean more taxes, more expenses, more upkeep, more, more, more

Posted By FrugalPete, Rochester, NY : May 13, 2008 10:06 am

“We are looking for deals in most markets but have yet to see any opportunities that fit our parameters of high-end communities at bargain prices. More offerings have come to market recently but nothing has excited us yet.”

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Posted By Not Buying - Malibu, CA : May 13, 2008 10:04 am

Lets take a look at the two statements below..

“We believe there is significant pent-up demand which is growing…..”

““We are looking for deals in most markets but have yet to see any opportunities that fit our parameters of high-end communities at bargain prices. More offerings have come to market recently but nothing has excited us yet.”

So only homebuyers are guilty of ‘lack of confidence’?

Posted By krish, port chester, NY : May 13, 2008 10:03 am

Once a person signs with Toll they are at a huge risk in the current economy. Toll has many communities that are well under 50% complete and 2-3 years past their expected completion dates. Buyers at luxury townhome projects will cry when assessments start coming for maint. and improvements based on the low occupancy.

Banks are ceasing to lend to these people for mortgages which is a clear sign to not buy.

I look forward to seeing how Toll reports their townhome exposure.

Good company, very bad times ahead.

Posted By roger daltrey, reston, va : May 13, 2008 8:24 am
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Colin Barr covers business and finance for Fortune.com. Previously he was an editor at TheStreet.com and author of the weekly Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street column, and an editor at Dow Jones Newswires.
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