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May 5, 2008, 10:41 am

Analyst to BofA: Ditch Countrywide

Countrywide (CFC) sank 11% in morning trading Monday after an analyst said Bank of America (BAC) should walk away from its $4 billion deal to buy Countrywide, due to rising credit costs and souring loans at the troubled mortgage lender. Analyst Paul Miller at Friedman Billings Ramsey downgraded Countrywide to underperform from market perform and cut his price target to $2 from $7, saying Bank of America could face writedowns of $30 billion or more when it closes the Countrywide deal. He says BofA’s statement Thursday that it won’t guarantee Countrywide debt “is most likely the first step in renegotiating the entire deal.”

Miller estimates that Bank of America has a $22 billion cushion to absorb writedowns of Countrywide’s loan book. While that sounds like a big number, the analyst lays out a worst-case scenario that could see Bank of America taking $17 billion in writedowns on Countrywide’s home equity and second mortgage portfolio alone. The analyst says writedowns could reach $11 billion on Countrywide’s portfolio of option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and $5 billion on hybrid ARMs and other loans. Writedowns of that size could easily swamp the cushion Bank of America set aside when it agreed back in January to buy Countrywide for $7 or so in BofA stock.

“The issue of fair value marks was a significant part of the reason that National City (NCC) failed to find an acquirer,” Miller writes, referring to the Cleveland-based bank, which has taken large mortgage-related losses. “If fair value marks sufficiently exceed BAC’s projections at the time of its due diligence, we believe the deal price for the purchase of CFC could be renegotiated lower, or BAC could (and should) decide to walk away.”

Cant seem to understand on how a company that rights over 3 billion dollars a quarter plus the proceeds for servicing over 4 billion dollars per month may be valued as a junk stock. Yes it could be that alot of rightdowns might be taking place and more to come but a company generating so much cash flow per-month may not have a way to over come something that is beyond their control and the borrowes. (Remember a big portion of CFC portfolio consist of loans purchased from wholesale lenders that are no longer in business and have choosen to skip the train on this one and leave it for the big guy to clean up the mess.)This is something that the local government must sees immediate action to help being that this will sink the housing market if we are drowning. The faith of all employee personal along with homeowners in trouble will seek to the idea that there is no aid from the government but just a story line that one creates that are posted on worldwide news and newspapres along with our president adding to it when all it is a group of investor cherry picking what is best in there interest to service for profit or gain come the near future! “No More to be said than the government not doing anything about this one because all the stories and beliefs were or are really false would turn this from bad to worse and from a better 2nd half of the year to just out right a complete diss belief in what other financial companies might not be disclosing as well”

Posted By Mr. Walters, Miami, FL : May 7, 2008 12:22 am

Wrong answer Fred! I don’t own a single credit card and I have enough equity in my farm to buy your place.Try again!

Posted By JDR, Orlando, FL : May 6, 2008 5:04 pm

Waht about Mozillo? Does he have to give back any of the money he walked away with?

Posted By Steve Chicago IL : May 6, 2008 4:43 pm

“Also…..
Just an FYI to everyone out there!
McCain is a VERY big supporter of BofA. If you vote for him, you ARE voting for high credit card rates and usury practices by finacial institutions!
Posted By JDR, Orlando, FL : May 5, 2008 10:26 pm ”

Let me take a wild guess, you’re up to your eyeballs in debt. Keep blaming others for choices you make, vote for Obama.

Posted By Fred, Arlington, VA : May 6, 2008 4:16 pm

Wow. It is amazing the one sided comments that make it through this forum. Nice sensorship! Way to go!

Posted By joe, melbourne, fl : May 6, 2008 11:24 am

Bank of America knew what they were doing when they bailed CountryWide. Calling in the loan when CountryWide could obviously not pay it back, causing CountryWide’s stock to plummet to an extremely low price, and then paying nothing for what was left. Sounds pretty smart except for the fact that things continue to get worse for CountryWide.

Posted By Justin, Chesapeake VA : May 6, 2008 1:59 am

Also…..
Just an FYI to everyone out there!
McCain is a VERY big supporter of BofA. If you vote for him, you ARE voting for high credit card rates and usury practices by finacial institutions!

Posted By JDR, Orlando, FL : May 5, 2008 10:26 pm

Zeus of CA is AWESOME!
BofA is greedy, let this deal stick it to them were the sun doesn’t sine.

Posted By JDR, Orlando, FL : May 5, 2008 10:18 pm

Besides the sweet writeoffs that we know BofA will get, there are definitely some secret government dealings going on here if they stick to the deal. There’s no way that CFC’s servicing portfolio is worth this kind of risk unless BofA is guaranteed by the government that there is no risk.

Posted By Rebekah, Las Vegas, NV : May 5, 2008 7:17 pm

BofA won’t walk away - they want to be the #1 mortgage lender in a very bad way and will go to greater lengths to get there than most realize.

Posted By CL, Evergreen CO : May 5, 2008 6:18 pm

Don’t hold your breath for anyone being held accountable. Franklin Raines made out fairly well by cooking the books at Fannie Mae. Although he did have to forfeit the stock options he acquired while plundering the company.

Posted By Jake, Bargersville, IN : May 5, 2008 5:15 pm

BofA should walk away, too much downside. Countrywide goes poof and BofA picks the bones in bankruptcy.

Posted By marty, naperville, il : May 5, 2008 4:28 pm

Run , don’t walk , I am sure there is more dirt in the closet the the Tie’s at B of A can’t see yet. CFC Management is no fool and would not agree to this deal if it could stand on its own two feet

Posted By Peter , Costa Mesa Ca : May 5, 2008 4:27 pm

BoA bought MBNA and acquired their preditory Credit Card practices, why shouldn’t they expand into ripping off potential homeowners. Countrywide will make a good addition.

Posted By Ben Dover, Mobile AL : May 5, 2008 4:12 pm

Bank of America has a ton invested into this acquisition. If they pulled out now you can hasta luego baby to their top tier management….but with all the losses CW will bring with them, the BofA management might as well start packing up now. The ONLY winner in this is the CW executives who put everyone in this mess in the first place. So much for KARMA!

Posted By Rick, Santa Ana, Ca : May 5, 2008 3:25 pm

Countrywide management was so intent on being “America’s Lender” that they totally defrauded America. These people need to be throughly investigated the same way ENRON and World Com executives were. When the ball drops, it’s the top level managers who must be held accountable. Off to San Quintin for Mozzilo & crew.

Posted By GeeDub, Laguna, Calif : May 5, 2008 3:16 pm

Bad loans and no concern on C’wide’s for long-term ramifications of making loans people soon would not be able to keep paying on, put them into this position. BofA did not get into subprime much at all. Let them take on such a creature as Countrywide . . .better than the Federal Gov’t, our tax money, going to prop up a badly managed company. The Bear Stearns move set a bad precedent though .. . .others companies may come to the Feds ‘hat in hand’, wanting the same .

Posted By Peter Hebda in Costa Mesa, CA : May 5, 2008 2:31 pm

Tsk, tsk, tsk. Uncle Ben shouldn’t discriminate (except against the American taxpyer). Since he ladled out public funds to JP Morgan Chase and the Bear Sterns execs, what is wrong with ladling out some more to B of A and Mozilo? After all, its not his money!

Posted By w nowack, Leawood, KS : May 5, 2008 2:11 pm

Mozzilo rot in hell and take down BofA wiht you!

Posted By JCM, Los Angeles, CA : May 5, 2008 2:07 pm

A company (CC) that violates lending guidelines, and duped investors, and borrowers should go belly-up as a cautionary tale to hubris & greed. Or, be charger with fraud, bank fraud, and theft by deception. You better beleive those idiots at the Fed, and the White House will bail them out, or blame a Democratic Congress fro not failing to act.

Posted By RGB : May 5, 2008 1:39 pm

Same sentiment with JDR.

Let BofA go ahead with Countrywide deal, let them go bankrupt. BofA has worst customer service and tons of fees here and there.

Posted By Zeus, Sacramento, CA : May 5, 2008 1:19 pm

This deal was stuffed down BofA’s throat from the beginning by Washington..
What possible gain could BofA have by buying CW out right and taking on all that bad mortgage risk, when it is only interested in certain aspects of the business. It could have just waited for CW to fold and then stepped in and bought what it wanted for pennies on the dollar.
I do agree with others that BofA is probably looking for a sweetheart deal from the Fed.
But if Washington is looking for BofA take on that kind of risk then why shouldn’t they. After all it was the Fed that opened that can worms with bale out of Bear.

Posted By Rick MA : May 5, 2008 12:58 pm

Got to love the “free enterprise” b.s of the American financial system. The Larry Krudlow’s continually spouting the macho mantra that government has no business messing with the financial markets and that the socialist doctrines they have in europe have no place on Wall Street. Yet, when the so-called “free enterprise” system gets into trouble, as it always does through rampant greed, the first ones to go crying to the government for a (Joe Sixpack tax payer) bail out are the “free enterprise” and “no government interference” promoters. As far as I’m concerned, the more aggressive regulations “We The People” impose upon these “free enterprise” cowboys, the better. Including massive fines and very long prison terms (with no parole) for the perps. And there are plenty of them on Wall Street. Hopefully, we can look forward to heavy duty investigations into the CEO’s of the Wall Street crooks and CEO’s of many US corporations. Let’s start with a forensic accountantcy investigation of CountryWide. Don’t hold your breath. These US corporations and the Financial Gangsters of Wall Street have plenty of off-shore money to pay off those other corrupt cowboys of the US culture. The politicians.

Posted By Mike, Los Angeles, USA : May 5, 2008 12:35 pm

The shareholders aren’t happy with the deal, and if things go even more south than it has, then the CEO may be looking for a new job.

Posted By Bryan, Charlotte, NC : May 5, 2008 12:12 pm

Unfortunately, with the Bear Stearns bailout, the Fed has tipped it’s very anemic hand, and now BofA is just lurking–Ready to go to Uncle Ben-the Lender of FIRST RESORT!!

Many believe BofA never intended to purchase CFC, and it makes sense. Lets get our 2 billion investment out, and let this ship sink, unless we can use taxpayer dollars to make a sweeter deal happen.

And they wonder why trust in the banking industry is just GONE!!

Posted By Jack Laredo, Atlanta GA : May 5, 2008 12:02 pm

JDR to Analyst:
Shut up and let Crooks of America go bankrupt, so they will quit ripping people off!

Posted By JDR, Orlando, FL : May 5, 2008 12:00 pm

Since the Fed assumed the risk created by Bear Sterns, why shouldn’t B of A get a similar sweetheart deal . After all, the Fed should dole out our money on a non-discriminatory basis.

Posted By wnowack, Leawood,KS : May 5, 2008 11:50 am

Oh how soon we forget. Doesn’t anyone see the ghost of Enron here? CW was sure to explode with BofA following right on its heels. BofA’s offer is not geniune but only a smoke screen to prop up both companies to avoid a national panic. The gov is just delaying the inevitable. This is going to be another savings and loan crisis that we’ll all have to pay for like it or not.

Posted By Aimee, Appleton, WI : May 5, 2008 11:47 am

Isn’t BofA positioning itself and getting everyone worked up about Countrywides debt so it can get a sweetheart deal like JP Morgan did with Bear Stearns from the Fed?

To me this is clearly BofA driving down the price to encourage the Fed to secure it’s takeover for a windfall down the road.

Posted By Omaha, NE : May 5, 2008 11:16 am
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