Update: Fannie, Freddie fall again
Update: Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) came under renewed pressure Wednesday amid increasing worries about the mortgage lenders’ financial health. Shares of Fannie fell 6% and rival Freddie dropped 3% in midmorning action after The Wall Street Journal reported the companies could be forced to raise more capital. The selloff came even after Freddie’s financial chief rebutted the report in a meeting with analysts in New York. “There is no dilutive capital raise plan,” he said, Bloomberg reports.
Wednesday’s selloff helped erase some of the gains made in Tuesday’s marketwide rally. Even after yesterday’s double-digit percentage gains, shares of both Fannie and Freddie have fallen more than 40% in 2008, as house prices have fallen and projected credit losses have risen. Those trends have fueled worries about the strength of the companies’ balance sheets, even after Freddie raised $6 billion and Fannie almost $8 billion late last year.
Worries about the companies’ health have intensified with Washington’s efforts to expand Fannie and Freddie’s role in supporting the housing market by allowing the two to buy bigger mortgages. Those fears lifted briefly Tuesday, when the Fed set plans to let banks and brokers use mortgage-backed securities as loan collateral, but the Journal contends that the sharp decline in the companies’ shares over the past year shows the market already expects a new share issue.
Adding to worries that shareholders will be diluted, the Journal notes that the companies’ regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, has stated its approval of new capital raising at Fannie and Freddie. While Ofheo recently deemed both companies well capitalized as of Dec. 31, director James Lockhart tells the Journal that “raising capital would put them in an even better position to support the mortgage market.”
While the stock prices have reversed themselves since this article was posted in response to Freddie’s reiteration of no new capital raising initiateves. I beleive the current pricing is taking into consideration a likely capital dilution. With dividend yields in the 4.75% range at current levels this may be likely, along with the possibility for a dividend reduction to retain capital. These are both stocks to watch in the coming days as long term there should be bargains to be had. Both of the GSE’s have gone from being outdated market dinosaurs to the market saviors which should lead to ever increasing market share going forward.
With the falling house prices, Fannie and Freddie will become insolvent - will congress spend taxpayers’ money to protect bondholders from loosing money? It seems to me that that money would be better spend on universal health care.
These are GSE’s. They are going to ever have MAJOR problems unless the U.S. Government wants them to.
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Keep in mind that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased the pricing for all loans that are bought by the two companies. Prior to the stimulus package signed by Bush last month, Fannie and Freddie did not charge a thing to buy back loans under the conventional limit; now they will charge a spread on all loans bought (up to .5 points to 2 points of the loan amount). A considerable source of revenue.