The business stories that matter, by Fortune's Colin Barr
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February 25, 2008, 2:46 pm

Update: No downgrade for MBIA

Update: Ambac (ABK) and  MBIA (MBI) surged after Standard & Poor’s affirmed Ambac’s triple-A rating and decided not to downgrade rival MBIA. The move sent Ambac stock up 13% and MBIA up 17% as investors awaited news of a possible deal to infuse billions of dollars of capital into Ambac. Earlier Monday, CNBC reported a deal to recapitalize Ambac has been worked out and needs only to get approval from the rating agencies. CNBC says the deal calls for Ambac to raise $3 billion in capital. Other news reports over the weekend said the New York-based company would raise the lion’s share of that through a sale of shares to existing shareholders. MBIA, for its part, raised $2.5 billion earlier this year through the sale of stock.

Investors in the big banks and brokerage houses would surely be relieved if Ambac could reach a deal that would preserve its triple-A rating with Moody’s as well as S&P, which is still considering a downgrade. Such an agreement would save them from having to take billions of dollars in writedowns. But while a recapitalization would bolster Ambac’s claims-paying resources, it would almost surely come at the expense of existing shareholders. The company is valued at $1.18 billion at recent prices, suggesting Ambac would have to sell more than twice as much stock as is outstanding now - diluing common shareholders by two-thirds in the process - to raise the requisite $2.5 billion. Details, details.

Ron: …the worst is behind them…eventually, the bulk of these suddenly hated products will mature and pay off face value

http://bp1.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/R8B-uKMbaBI/AAAAAAAACMM/EQgq9ZRd_oI/s1600-h/wm-alta-pool.png

Though sub-prime was all there was? This is an alt-a mortgage pool from less than a year ago looks like. Half a billion bond. AAA stamp of approval. 705 average credit score. Already 20% non-performing, probably 20%+ REO by end of year.

This is going to pay anywhere close to face value?

Posted By Mark, San Francisco, CA : February 26, 2008 1:49 am

The only thing I can think of is that S&P was assured that the banks whose CDO’s Ambac and MBIA insure won’t let them fail because if they do fail, S&P is opening themselves up to being sued like you would not believe.

Posted By Tom, FL : February 25, 2008 9:25 pm

The problems for ABK and MBI will be over sooner than later, and the worst is behind them. Both companies have already indicated that they will no longer be insuring the CDO/Mortgage junk that got them into this hole in the first place. So this problem, with time, will simply disappear.

Additionally, much of their insured CDO/Mortgage product is currently priced irrationally. What we have is not so much a bond crises as it is a liquidity crises. When you have a product no one wants, its hard to value it at face value. But, eventually, the bulk of these suddenly hated products will mature and pay off face value.

I find it sweet justice that the banks are the ones that are having to come to the rescue of the insurers… because the banks are the ones who got them in this fine mess to begin with.

The banks, supposed pillars of responsible finance, got caught up in the greed game and joined the fray to bilk the consumer by promoting adjustable rate mortgages and other exotic product while fixed rates were near all-time lows.

I also believe that if the banks had not stepped up to provide the safety net for the insurers, that the insurers would be attempting to sue them in court for fabricating information on loan applications to get people approved that had no business getting approved for a loan in the first place.

How to solve this mess from happening again in the future? No more repackaging and reselling the loans as soon as the ink dries on the original contract. Force the banks and mortgage companies who are writing these loans to hold them on their books until maturity.

Posted By Ron, Fort Worth Texas : February 25, 2008 9:03 pm

Buffett is the biggest loan shark of them all. He just knows how to invest in things that don’t lose. Muni-bonds will just force the public to pay higher property taxes. What does AAA really give u? They must pay for gambling. I want to see blood spilled! It’s so lame.

Posted By kng863, Hackensack, NJ : February 25, 2008 8:21 pm

What’s the song again ? “Lies, tell me sweet little lies, tell me lies..”

Posted By Michel, Amsterdam, Netherlands : February 25, 2008 5:06 pm

Let’s see,

Downgrade AMBAC and MBIA and watch in horror as the market implodes or say that they are still triple “A” agencies and avert the catastrophe for a few months longer.

The ship is still sinking.

Posted By Avram, Redlands, CA : February 25, 2008 4:13 pm

Lost total faith in standard & Poor’s. How can ABK and MBI have AAA ratings with Buffet taking away thier muni business and they are still holding depreciating assets?

Posted By John Charlotte NC : February 25, 2008 4:06 pm

Its a healthy re-start for Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI) to keep its triple A ratings to maintain confidence levels.

Cheers,

Posted By Madhu Aryal, Investment Banker, Manhattan, New York : February 25, 2008 3:44 pm

“a deal to recapitalize Ambac has been worked out and needs only to get approval from the rating agencies” Why is an approval given by parties with deeply vested interests (rating agencies) now taken seriously by anyone other than Ambac? Which triple-A sounds better; Warren Buffet’s or SKIN OF THE TEETH?

Posted By David, Corunna Spain : February 25, 2008 3:34 pm
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Colin Barr covers business and finance for Fortune.com. Previously he was an editor at TheStreet.com and author of the weekly Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street column, and an editor at Dow Jones Newswires.
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