The business stories that matter, by Fortune's Colin Barr
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January 31, 2008, 6:56 am

Losses weigh on MBIA

Bond insurer MBIA (MBI) posted a steep fourth-quarter loss that will only intensify questions about its chances of fending off a ratings agency downgrade. The Armonk, N.Y., company lost $2.3 billion, or $18.61 a share, for the quarter ended Dec. 31, reversing the year-ago profit of $181 million, or $1.32 a share. MBIA did say it closed a $500 million stock sale to private equity firm Warburg Pincus, and that it is considering its alternatives for raising additional equity, including a $500 million rights offering Warburg has agreed to backstop. Given rising losses tied to the crumbling value of mortgage-related securities, it’s likely the company will have to raise more money soon to hold onto its triple-A ratings from Moody’s and S&P. Complicating those efforts, though, is a push by hedge fund investor Bill Ackman, who is short MBIA, to raise questions about the accounting practices and financial prospects of MBIA and rival Ambac (ABK). Elsewhere, S&P is forecasting banking industry losses of $265 billion on mortgage securities and collateralized debt obligations - very much the sorts of holdings that have investors worried about Ambac and MBIA. Those sorts of observations are part of what pushed both stocks to double-digit percentage losses Wednesday - and why Thursday may well bring more of the same.

On January 18th 2008 Bill Ackman wrote a letter to Moody’s and the S&P regarding the monolines. Here is point #8 of Bill Ackman’s Letter to Rating Agencies Regarding Bond Insurers:

I encourage you to ask yourself the following question while looking at your image in the mirror:

Does a company deserve your highest Triple A rating whose stock price has declined 90%, has cut its dividend, is scrambling to raise capital, completed a partial financing at 14% interest (now trading at a 20% yield one week later), has incurred losses massively in excess of its promised zero-loss expectations wiping out more than half of book value, with Berkshire Hathaway as a new competitor, having lost access to its only liquidity facility, and having concealed material information from the marketplace?

Can this possibly make sense?

http://downgradetheinsurers.wordpress.com

Posted By bonds7 : February 1, 2008 1:55 pm

At Google Answers, there’s a good discussion of finding out information and stats on bond trading:

Bond Trading Sites

Worth a look!

Posted By David Washington DC : January 31, 2008 12:40 pm
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Colin Barr covers business and finance for Fortune.com. Previously he was an editor at TheStreet.com and author of the weekly Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street column, and an editor at Dow Jones Newswires.
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