The business stories that matter, by Fortune's Colin Barr
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November 29, 2007, 1:16 pm

E*Trade’s earnings power problem

Investors like Thursday’s bailout of E*Trade (ETFC) by hedge fund Citadel and asset manager BlackRock. Shares of E*Trade rose 4% on news of the $2.5 billion deal, which will give Citadel a 20% stake in the struggling online broker and relieve E*Trade of billions of dollars in toxic mortgage holdings.Supporters of the deal point out that Citadel’s Ken Griffin has an enviable record of buying distressed assets at the right time, and that E*Trade now has enough cash on hand that its continued existence is no longer in question. But  venture capitalist Paul Kedrosky, while acknowledging those positives, makes a crucial point: With the dilution from Thursday’s deal, and the flight of many lucrative customers as E*Trade appeared to be staring into the abyss, E*Trade’s earnings power is sharply diminished.The magnitude of the housing meltdown seems to have obscured that issue somewhat. With well-known outfits like E*Trade, Countrywide (CFC) and Citi (C) nearly running aground, the tendency has been to gape at the billions of dollars in writedowns coming down the pike. How much worse can it get, one repeatedly wonders.

But with the credit markets exhibiting signs of severe stress, the real problem is that companies across the financial sector are going to find profits much harder to come by. Banks are increasingly unwilling to lend to one another, home prices are in free-fall, and the M&A mania has petered out. Even as the stock market hit a record high this year, E*Trade was repeatedly cutting its earnings forecasts. With home sales dropping and mortgages getting much tougher to come by, why should we believe — to take one prominent example — Countrywide’s claim last month that it will return to profitability in the fourth quarter? If Merrill Lynch’s (MER) estimated loss on bad mortgage-related debt changes from one month to the next, how confident should we be in anyone’s forecasts? 

That’s why the bottom in financial stocks is going to prove elusive.

Remember the saying”you can’t loose $ in real estate?”

Leave it to the over educated MBA’s, PHD’s in corporate finance to figure it out, again. These are the same Blogget clowns who helped put “main street” on the ropes back in 2000 and now in 2007. These greedy,lazy,idoits could’nt sell investments from 2001 until 2007-nobody was buying securities so they milked the consumer again,all just so they could all maintain their white collar status selling CIV’S. What do you know -deja vu,now it’s the AMG ticket to reposession/ foreclosure because of the ever classic shoddy disclosure in ARM mortgages-just like all that solid stock research in the 90’s they touted. Just the same crock, different shovel. Does front loaded/ hidden commissions seem like another possible driver here? The market really has’nt moved at all-just spiked due to the volitility of hedge funds and private equity groups manipulating the markets from 2001 to now. If any of you financial wizzards still work in your Ivory Towers on Wall Street, or are stupid enough to think that is where your headed after graduation from scam school, take a HARD look at the current and comming layoffs at the “Big 4″. The wheel keeps turn’n,we all get what we deserve eventually.
Heads up-the market is headed down so put on your life vests you fools.

Posted By Chris- glad to be a X broker from LA, CA. : November 30, 2007 2:27 am

I agree with the people in here. This article is just a bunch of obvious opinons. Its like the article that the analyst from citi wrote….a piece of garbage. Only a person who was dumb would listen to this guy

Posted By Ermilo Santa Cruz Ca : November 29, 2007 5:03 pm

This article is so pessimistic with no substance that it should be be removed.

Posted By Brian, Miami, FL : November 29, 2007 4:25 pm

I think you are right. The E-Trade was trading under $5 again despite of $2.5B deal today.

Posted By Jim.Orange Oark, FL : November 29, 2007 3:09 pm

Pathetic “MBA in St. Louis”…I know of not one MBA that would use the Middle School phrase “I tell you what if I know…”. I have an MBA and grad schools do require that you have both a high school education and college degree before moving on to the bigger words and whole sentences. Also, it’s not “the dumbest thing heard in 2 weeks”…it’s the dumbest thing read!

Further, to comment, earnings are what we focus on. An MBA would know that revenue means nothing. You must factor in expenses given the current environment of “credit”.

Sanjay Dalal’s comment was the important note…if Citadel values 20% at $2.5B, then what is the true value of the rest of the asset?!

Posted By Chip, MBA, Los Angeles, CA : November 29, 2007 2:36 pm

One has to commend E*Trade board and the team to make this bold move at the right time!! If a major hedge fund Citadel gets 20% stake of E*Trade for $2.5 billion, the implied value of E*Trade should be about $12.5 billion. E*Trade currently trades at $5.43 at a market cap of only $2.3 billion - at this price E*Trade shares are a steal, if you believe in the future prospects!! Sure, the float will increase after the deal, and more shares will be available; however, even if you include them in the equation, E*Trade valuation looks very attractive at this price point. Further, the deal allows E*Trade to come out of the sub-prime mess, and solidify on its core retail business.

The patient and astute investor will be rewarded.

Creativity And Innovation Driving Business
http://creativityandinnovation.blogspot.com

Disclaimer: I invest in E*Trade and a long standing E*Trade customer

Posted By Sanjay Dalal, Irvine, California : November 29, 2007 1:55 pm

I hate to have to say, but that is the dumbest thing I have heard in the past 2 weeks. You only focused on the earnings, not the revenue. The fact that their revenue has been increasing just went completely over your head. Come on’ you just wanted to write an article colin. I tell you what if I know you of any other articles you write I will not read it. Way to point out the obvious that doesn’t make any difference in this scenario.

Posted By CFP,MBA St.louis, MO : November 29, 2007 1:39 pm

Your comments are hollow and lack common sence. A total waste of the 20 seconds it took for me to read them and the 5 seconds it took for you to conceive them. Pessimistic morons like you are part of what is wrong with America!

Posted By Tom, Seattle, WA : November 29, 2007 1:29 pm
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Colin Barr covers business and finance for Fortune.com. Previously he was an editor at TheStreet.com and author of the weekly Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street column, and an editor at Dow Jones Newswires.
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