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November 29, 2007, 10:12 am

Countrywide: Check’s in the mail?

Is something up at Countrywide (CFC)? Shares of the struggling mortgage lender sat out Wednesday’s red hot financial sector rally, dropping 3% even as peers such as Freddie Mac (FRE) and Washington Mutual (WM) rose sharply. Bloomberg notes that Countrywide credit default swaps – bets on whether the firm will be able to pay its obligations – are trading at distressed levels. Meanwhile, Countrywide last week issued a press release defending its liquidity position in a bid to quiet market skeptics who believe the firm will run out of money as problems in the housing market deepen.

Now comes The Wall Street Journal. The paper weighs in Thursday with a piece arguing that BofA’s (BAC) preferred stock investment in Countrywide may yet turn out to be a smart move — despite the fact that Countrywide shares have lost half their value in the intervening months.

What’s curious about the piece is that it notes Countrywide owed BofA its first $36.25 million quarterly dividend payment this month, but no one at either company will say whether Countrywide has paid up. BofA referred a question on the matter to Countrywide, which didn’t immediately respond to a call from Fortune.

“It seems like Countrywide has the liquidity to pay this dividend, so what is surprising here is that Countrywide would not come out and say that it has paid it,” said Gary Gordon, analyst at Portales Partners.

Craig Emrich, the Moody’s credit analyst who covers Countrywide, says nonpayment of the dividend on this convertible bond would not be a default, because this type of security — a so-called cumulative preferred security —  allows the issuer to defer a certain amount of dividends. Emrich doesn’t know whether Countrywide has paid its latest dividend or not.

“I don’t think it’s that unusual for an issuer to defer a dividend,” he says, adding that the terms of the allow Bank of America to designate two directors to Countrywide’s board if the dividend isn’t paid for six quarters. 

 Fortune also contacted Countrywide credit analysts at S&P to see if payment had been made, but they didn’t respond to the inquiries. 

Maybe there’s nothing to this. Countrywide shares were up 3% in early trading Thursday as the other financial stocks dropped. But given all the worries about Countrywide’s financial position, investors might want to know if the company is current on the BofA deal.

BOA wants the assets but not the liabilities. Only way to get that is through a BK. Pretty simple.

Posted By Daniel Pershing, Los Angeles, CA : November 29, 2007 2:25 pm

Strange, indeed!
Most likely, both BofA and Countrywide are putting pressure on regulators, the Fed, FHLB and DOJ not to push CFC into receivership.

Posted By cody, washington, d.c. : November 29, 2007 11:53 am

It always appeared to be an option for Bank Of America to eventually take over Countrywide’s assets. If BAC were interested in ensuring its investment was secure in case of insolvency at Countrywide, wouldn’t they have gone the debt route? I think the intention was alwasy, if CFC recovers, this is a good investment and if CFC looks like will not recover than BAC steps in before any bankruptcy filings are done and takes the company over. The investment gives BAC first right of refusal so they will not have to fight others to get their hands on CFC assets

For the investors, this creates a floor on the stock (somewhere, who knows where) in the sense that the company will not file for bankruptcy. With this downward protection in, I think the stock is a very nice speculative buy at this point (actually buying Countrywide debt may make even more sense)

-Arohan

Posted By Arohan, Canton MI : November 29, 2007 11:00 am
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Colin Barr covers business and finance for Fortune.com. Previously he was an editor at TheStreet.com and author of the weekly Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street column, and an editor at Dow Jones Newswires.
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